Thousands
of delegates from across Nigeria converge on Lagos, as the main
opposition party chooses its candidate to run for president in next
year's elections.
Unlike
the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which has endorsed
President Goodluck Jonathan as its only candidate, the All Progressives
Congress (APC) has to choose from among five hopefuls.
But primary looks set to be a two-horse race, although opinions are split as to who is the favourite.
"It
is going to be a straight battle between Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku
Abubakar," Olusegun Adeniyi, who was former president Umaru Musa
Yar'Adua's spokesman, told AFP.
At
stake for the winner of the February 14 vote is the chance to wrest the
presidency from the PDP for the first time since Nigeria returned to
civilian rule in 1999.
Boko
Haram's insurgency is raging in the northeast; the economy is reeling
from falling global oil prices; while corruption, impunity and poor
governance are seen as worse than ever.
"People
want to see a candidate who represents some significant shift," said
Clement Nwankwo, director of the Policy and Legal Advisory Centre, a
civil society group.
In
theory, the APC a coalition of four opposition parties buoyed by a wave
of defections from the PDP has never been in a better position to
challenge for government.
It
has focused its campaign on the Jonathan administration's stewardship
of the economy, insecurity and its perceived failure to tackle
corruption.
Its
argument is that the country needs change but it still faces an uphill
battle to overcome the financial clout and organisation of the PDP.
Buhari,
who lost to Jonathan four years ago and to Yar'Adua in 2007, and Atiku,
a four-time candidate for the presidential nomination, are among
Nigeria's most well-known politicians.
The
71-year-old Buhari, who was military ruler from 1983-85, has a
reputation for a no-nonsense approach to corruption, even though human
rights groups condemned his methods during his time in power.
The
former general would be expected to take a tougher line against Boko
Haram and may be favoured because he is backed by the APC's political
godfather Bola Tinubu.
Abubakar, 68, is seen as the better political operator.
Buhari had to take out a 27.5 million naira ($150,000, 122,000 euro) bank loan to pay for his own presidential form.
The
wealthy Abubakar, who was vice president under Olusegun Obasanjo from
1999 to 2007, has funded his own campaign -- and those for other APC
governorship candidates in the south.
That
is likely to win him party votes from those regions. His eight years of
experience in government and friends across the political divide as a
former ruling party member are also possible assets.
"Atiku
has the better political machine and he's a past master at winning
political primaries," said political commentator Chris Ngwodo.
Abubakar
has set himself apart from other presidential hopefuls by publishing a
detailed policy document, which includes 100-day and five-year plans for
government.
Abubakar
has "decades of business experience, which should give him an edge over
Buhari, who has no known experience in the private sector," said
political and social commentator Tolu Ogunlesi. But past accusations of
corruption dating back to Abubakar's time as head of the customs service
may also count against him if the APC maintains its strong line on
graft.
Buhari's
past as a military ruler, however, is unlikely to mark him down: most
of today's voters in youthful Nigeria were either too young or not even
born yet when he was in power.
"The passage of time has polished his record and created a myth," Ngwodo said.
In 2011, Buhari won 12 million votes despite the lack of a well-organised party machine behind him.
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